Statistics Profile

Michael Wu

2005

UMass Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2529	1395 - 3662	2529	2529
Épée	Direct elimination	1789	537 - 3040	1789	1789
Foil	Pool	2050	1874 - 2225	1549	2127
Foil	Direct elimination	2134	1921 - 2346	1919	2274

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.