Statistics Profile

Joshua Dong

2010

Aura Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	958	536 - 1379	958	1236
Foil	Direct elimination	1092	244 - 1939	1092	2079
Saber	Pool	1142	698 - 1585	1069	1383
Saber	Direct elimination	1283	223 - 2342	1283	1473

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.