Statistics Profile

Derek Neas

1970

Center for Blade Arts

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1437	1006 - 1867	1311	1624
Épée	Direct elimination	1168	253 - 2082	1168	1788
Foil	Pool	953	693 - 1212	921	1401
Foil	Direct elimination	931	415 - 1446	931	1616

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.