Statistics Profile

Alistair Wu

Verified
2008
Olympic Epee Masters Cavalier Fencing Club

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2399 2231 - 2566 1850 3009
Épée Direct elimination 2681 2504 - 2857 2245 3009
Foil Pool 2459 2287 - 2630 1199 2703
Foil Direct elimination 2613 2446 - 2779 1139 2639
Saber Pool 1016 436 - 1595 1016 1022
Saber Direct elimination 1812 947 - 2676 1636 1812

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.