Statistics Profile

Gabriel Bales

2010

Iowa City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1170	996 - 1343	558	1299
Foil	Direct elimination	1440	1203 - 1676	1309	2079
Saber	Pool	1329	997 - 1660	1329	1547
Saber	Direct elimination	1538	865 - 2210	1538	2173

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.