Statistics Profile

Jonah Daniels

2006

Brandeis University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2206	2040 - 2371	1636	2274
Épée	Direct elimination	2292	2065 - 2518	1582	2399
Saber	Pool	1156	398 - 1913	1156	1156
Saber	Direct elimination	1264	133 - 2394	1264	1264

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.