Statistics Profile

Ethan Han

2007

Olympic Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1997	1821 - 2172	1827	2375
Épée	Direct elimination	2244	2018 - 2469	1850	2669
Saber	Pool	1912	1267 - 2556	1912	2322
Saber	Direct elimination	1586	786 - 2385	1318	1586

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.