Statistics Profile

William Davidson

2010

Cyranos Place

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1774	1096 - 2451	1650	1774
Foil	Direct elimination	2255	1304 - 3205	1584	2255
Saber	Pool	1005	665 - 1344	1005	1335
Saber	Direct elimination	1161	220 - 2101	1161	1725

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.