Statistics Profile

Declan McNew

2008

Foothills Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1272	995 - 1548	1152	1725
Foil	Direct elimination	1635	1209 - 2060	1462	2195
Saber	Pool	1658	1292 - 2023	960	1658
Saber	Direct elimination	1948	1371 - 2524	1393	1948

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.