Statistics Profile

Avery McNulty

2007

Vivo Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1211	425 - 1996	1211	1211
Épée	Direct elimination	1695	489 - 2900	1695	1695
Foil	Pool	865	359 - 1370	865	1163
Foil	Direct elimination	1241	243 - 2238	1241	1385

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.