Statistics Profile

Aaron Millikan

2011

The Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1248	990 - 1505	991	1576
Épée	Direct elimination	2071	1640 - 2501	1571	2571
Saber	Pool	575	173 - 976	538	899
Saber	Direct elimination	1019	281 - 1756	1019	1482

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.