Statistics Profile

Sarah Burnham

2005

Thames River Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1384	1158 - 1609	1384	2229
Épée	Direct elimination	1254	774 - 1733	1221	1519
Foil	Pool	496	136 - 855	496	1302
Foil	Direct elimination	1053	247 - 1858	1053	1798
Saber	Pool	1377	378 - 2375	1377	1672

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.