Statistics Profile

Aaron Cao

2009

Salt City Swords Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	1549	406 - 2691	1549	1549
Saber	Direct elimination	3051	1722 - 4379	3051	3051

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.