Statistics Profile

Zachary Gao

2007

Northern Colorado Fencers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2355	2184 - 2525	1621	2361
Épée	Direct elimination	2371	2197 - 2544	1587	2377
Foil	Pool	1608	1359 - 1856	1533	2814
Foil	Direct elimination	1703	1208 - 2197	1055	1871

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.