Eli Rozalski

2009

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Foil DE 2531 2360 - 2701 2021 2544
Foil Pool 2273 2099 - 2446 1820 2921
Épée DE 2356 1449 - 3262 2356 2356
Épée Pool 1869 1196 - 2541 1869 1869
Saber DE 2310 1133 - 3486 2310 2310
Saber Pool 1959 1341 - 2576 1959 1959

* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Outcome Chance My strength change Their strength change
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Strength over time

The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.

Explanation

  • The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others historically.
  • The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.
  • An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.
  • Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear, which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers looks like a bell curve.
  • If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.
  • Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform just like you did against others in the past.