Statistics Profile

Isabella Guan

2009

Cavalier Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1969	1804 - 2133	1559	2220
Épée	Direct elimination	2297	2128 - 2465	1920	2531

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.