Statistics Profile

Aaron Liu

2008

Marin Fencing Academy LLC

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1729	1502 - 1955	1266	1729
Épée	Direct elimination	1985	1596 - 2373	1778	2526
Foil	Pool	1602	1422 - 1781	1442	1870
Foil	Direct elimination	1734	1481 - 1986	1391	1972
Saber	Pool	1641	996 - 2285	1641	1641
Saber	Direct elimination	1680	380 - 2979	1680	1680

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.