Statistics Profile

Stephen Burt

1970

Lang Fencing Academy Nashville Academy of Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1442	382 - 2501	1442	1442
Épée	Direct elimination	1873	575 - 3170	1873	1873
Foil	Pool	897	672 - 1121	787	1247
Foil	Direct elimination	1363	964 - 1761	1315	1775

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.