Statistics Profile

Brian Chen

2005

Harvard-Westlake High School Wolverines

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1925	1610 - 2239	1794	2426
Épée	Direct elimination	1883	1187 - 2578	1487	2079
Saber	Pool	1460	998 - 1921	1323	1460
Saber	Direct elimination	1973	1099 - 2846	1910	1973

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.