Statistics Profile

Roran Hensley

2008

NMFC/Duke City Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1816	1643 - 1988	1732	2647
Épée	Direct elimination	2006	1713 - 2298	1155	2020

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.