Statistics Profile

Alex Brown

2007

Penn State University Fencing Club Peters Township Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1656	1383 - 1928	1656	2769
Épée	Direct elimination	1698	1104 - 2291	1698	2522
Foil	Pool	1769	1376 - 2161	1756	1769
Foil	Direct elimination	1815	1051 - 2578	1815	1815

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.