Statistics Profile

Scott Sprague

1969

Denver Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1308	745 - 1870	1195	1308
Épée	Direct elimination	1810	648 - 2971	1810	1958
Foil	Pool	1009	40 - 1977	1009	1009
Saber	Pool	1270	701 - 1838	1018	1270
Saber	Direct elimination	1622	442 - 2801	1622	1775

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.