Statistics Profile

Aidan Conant

2003

Virginia Tech Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1481	1264 - 1697	1298	1810
Foil	Direct elimination	1544	1182 - 1905	1392	2253
Saber	Pool	1325	981 - 1668	1291	1485
Saber	Direct elimination	1044	251 - 1836	1044	1699

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.