Statistics Profile

Jonas Arnemann

2005

Michigan State University Fencing Club Grand Rapids Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2145	1968 - 2321	1240	2145
Épée	Direct elimination	2390	2155 - 2624	1461	2423
Foil	Pool	1506	684 - 2327	1506	1506
Foil	Direct elimination	1669	471 - 2866	1669	1669
Saber	Pool	1695	1192 - 2197	1614	1717
Saber	Direct elimination	1715	916 - 2513	1715	2297

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.