Statistics Profile

Jonas Arnemann

2005
Michigan State University Fencing Club Grand Rapids Fencing Academy
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2193 2015 - 2370 1240 2193
Épée Direct elimination 2379 2151 - 2606 1461 2423
Foil Pool 1506 684 - 2327 1506 1506
Foil Direct elimination 1669 471 - 2866 1669 1669
Saber Pool 1695 1192 - 2197 1614 1717
Saber Direct elimination 1715 916 - 2513 1715 2297

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.