Statistics Profile

Adrian Louie

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1333	726 - 1939	1333	1333
Épée	Direct elimination	1797	543 - 3050	1797	1797
Foil	Pool	607	25 - 1188	387	704
Foil	Direct elimination	1397	564 - 2229	1329	1397

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.