Statistics Profile

Luke McKinley

Verified

2006

University of Incarnate Word Fencing NCAA

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1037	11 - 2062	1037	1037
Épée	Direct elimination	1955	596 - 3313	1955	1955
Foil	Pool	1928	1750 - 2105	1274	2004
Foil	Direct elimination	2313	2115 - 2510	1558	2405

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.