Statistics Profile

Aaron Ottaviano

2008

Vivo Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1618	1452 - 1783	1180	1618
Épée	Direct elimination	1785	1580 - 1989	932	2168
Foil	Pool	630	46 - 1213	630	1152
Foil	Direct elimination	1158	208 - 2107	1158	2237

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.