Statistics Profile

Joseph Miller

2010

Houston Sword Sports Rogue Fencers Guild

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1586	1189 - 1982	1586	2553
Foil	Direct elimination	1998	1400 - 2595	1998	2476
Saber	Pool	1365	852 - 1877	1285	1365
Saber	Direct elimination	1357	402 - 2311	1357	1761

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.