Statistics Profile

Josh Madry

2001

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1304	453 - 2154	1304	1304
Épée	Direct elimination	1934	661 - 3206	1934	1934
Foil	Pool	1361	589 - 2132	1361	1438
Foil	Direct elimination	2253	835 - 3670	2253	2253

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.