Statistics Profile

Bryn Felgner

2008

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club (Port Chester)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1260	804 - 1715	1260	1434
Épée	Direct elimination	2180	1461 - 2898	2180	2476
Saber	Pool	1526	1009 - 2042	1526	1804
Saber	Direct elimination	1987	976 - 2997	1987	2110

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.