Statistics Profile

Cesar A Arias

1991

Nova Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2211	1432 - 2989	2211	2211
Épée	Direct elimination	2533	1402 - 3663	2533	2533
Saber	Pool	2594	2341 - 2846	2584	2764
Saber	Direct elimination	2684	2374 - 2993	2654	3195

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.