Statistics Profile

Nicholas Vencill

2000

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1092	296 - 1887	1092	1092
Épée	Direct elimination	1668	443 - 2892	1668	1668
Saber	Pool	1859	1498 - 2219	1437	2196
Saber	Direct elimination	2011	1291 - 2730	2011	2449

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.