Statistics Profile

Matthew Robinson

2000

Mars Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2015	1828 - 2201	1383	2185
Épée	Direct elimination	2300	2014 - 2585	1692	2565
Foil	Pool	1486	1218 - 1753	1077	1597
Foil	Direct elimination	1789	1228 - 2349	1789	2263
Saber	Pool	2509	1606 - 3411	2509	2921
Saber	Direct elimination	2631	1541 - 3720	2631	2631

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.