Statistics Profile

Luke Sauter

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1028	651 - 1404	1018	1300
Épée	Direct elimination	1683	933 - 2432	1683	2496
Foil	Pool	527	143 - 910	467	901
Foil	Direct elimination	793	43 - 1542	793	2079
Saber	Pool	933	570 - 1295	912	1253
Saber	Direct elimination	913	105 - 1720	913	1344

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.