Statistics Profile

Nolan Giovagnoli

2005

Northern Colorado Fencers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2304	2134 - 2473	1575	2411
Épée	Direct elimination	2588	2413 - 2762	1623	2600
Foil	Pool	1484	1147 - 1820	1372	1700
Foil	Direct elimination	1837	1209 - 2464	1665	2173
Saber	Pool	1232	408 - 2055	1232	1232
Saber	Direct elimination	2235	834 - 3635	2235	2235

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.