Statistics Profile

Jason Rowe

2004

Rose City Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2497	1402 - 3591	2497	2497
Épée	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Foil	Pool	2034	1076 - 2991	2034	2034
Foil	Direct elimination	1737	419 - 3054	1737	1737

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.