Statistics Profile

Justin Croutch

2007

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1870	1419 - 2320	1856	1873
Épée	Direct elimination	2242	1361 - 3122	2233	2496
Foil	Pool	1425	1165 - 1684	1214	1526
Foil	Direct elimination	1731	1252 - 2209	1731	2079
Saber	Pool	933	631 - 1234	886	1246
Saber	Direct elimination	996	361 - 1630	996	1814

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.