Statistics Profile

sebastian celaya

2002

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2033	1440 - 2625	2033	2400
Épée	Direct elimination	1832	532 - 3131	1832	2079
Foil	Pool	1095	475 - 1714	1095	1095
Foil	Direct elimination	1332	308 - 2355	1332	1332

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.