Statistics Profile

Ethan Toyofuku

2009

Olympic Epee Masters

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2089	1922 - 2255	1529	2089
Épée	Direct elimination	2397	2216 - 2577	1865	3062
Foil	Pool	1836	1665 - 2006	1151	1865
Foil	Direct elimination	1925	1739 - 2110	1447	2112
Saber	Pool	1470	899 - 2040	1470	1601
Saber	Direct elimination	3047	1996 - 4097	2804	3047

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.