Statistics Profile

Ellis Fong

2007

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1752	1059 - 2444	1752	1752
Foil	Pool	1446	1154 - 1737	1134	1451
Foil	Direct elimination	1621	995 - 2246	1600	2192

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.