Statistics Profile

Brayden Esler

2005

The Morgan School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1390	337 - 2442	1390	1390
Épée	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Foil	Pool	376	0 - 1053	376	376
Foil	Direct elimination	2026	989 - 3062	2026	2026

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.