Statistics Profile

Morgan Herrmann

2004

Sword Masters Club, Orlando

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1717	1440 - 1993	1541	2052
Épée	Direct elimination	1946	1458 - 2433	1946	2611
Saber	Pool	1885	1159 - 2610	1885	1885
Saber	Direct elimination	2202	817 - 3586	2202	2202

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.