Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Cope

1994

University of Rhode Island

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2170	1742 - 2597	2054	2170
Foil	Direct elimination	2014	1311 - 2716	1976	2014
Saber	Pool	1542	1045 - 2038	1542	1713
Saber	Direct elimination	1720	824 - 2615	1720	2111

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.