Statistics Profile

John Tomasi

1982

Smokey Mountain Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1836	1606 - 2065	1741	2427
Épée	Direct elimination	1818	1376 - 2259	1741	2643
Foil	Pool	1909	1736 - 2081	1510	1929
Foil	Direct elimination	2206	1988 - 2423	1494	2206

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.