Statistics Profile

Patrick Feagin

2005

College of William & Mary Fencing Club Candlewood Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1699	1524 - 1873	1495	1991
Épée	Direct elimination	1891	1647 - 2134	1487	1891
Foil	Pool	1715	830 - 2599	1715	1715
Foil	Direct elimination	1879	630 - 3127	1879	1879

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.