Statistics Profile

Julia Davis

2003

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1742	1056 - 2427	1520	1742
Épée	Direct elimination	1928	669 - 3186	1928	1928
Foil	Pool	2375	1368 - 3381	2375	2375
Foil	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.