Statistics Profile

Joshua Ayers

1998

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1839	1037 - 2640	1839	1839
Épée	Direct elimination	2223	1114 - 3331	2223	2223
Foil	Pool	2623	2064 - 3181	2220	2623
Foil	Direct elimination	2504	1762 - 3245	2291	2624

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.