Statistics Profile

Aidan Bonta

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	629	120 - 1137	629	753
Épée	Direct elimination	1502	415 - 2588	1502	1786
Foil	Pool	968	358 - 1577	968	2180
Foil	Direct elimination	1574	404 - 2743	1574	1574

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.