Statistics Profile

Lydia Choi

2012

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1209	1041 - 1376	1170	2198
Épée	Direct elimination	1605	1385 - 1824	1591	2474
Foil	Pool	889	718 - 1059	282	992
Foil	Direct elimination	1289	1077 - 1500	1017	1581

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.