Statistics Profile

Matthew Larson

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1477	1189 - 1764	1243	1477
Épée	Direct elimination	1821	1309 - 2332	1780	2379
Foil	Pool	1054	658 - 1449	961	1183
Foil	Direct elimination	1142	348 - 1935	1142	1895

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.